Arsenal's Ideal Replacement for Gabriel Jesus
Following Brazil vs Cameroon, Arsenal's main man suffered an injury which could mean he is out for a significant portion of the second half of the season. Is this the end of Arsenal's title campaign?
Why Jesus Is Such A Big Loss
How can a striker who has only 5 goals in the Premier League this season, be considered a big loss to a club in the title race?
Well, the answer is simple and can be broken down into 3 parts:
Attacking Contributions
Defensive Contributions
Stylistic Compatibility
Attacking Contributions
For a striker that has only scored five goals in the Premier League this season, Jesus is vital to Arsenal’s attack.
With 10 goal contributions so far (5G & 5A), Jesus has been involved in close to a third of all Arsenal’s goals this campaign (33 Goals).
The 25 year old is a creator at heart and this is apparent in his statistics this season. The Brazilian is 4th in the league for shot creating actions (SCA) (57), behind Kevin De-Bruyne (83), Kieran Trippier (65) and Bruno Fernandes (58). He averages 4.21 SCA/90mins.
In addition, Jesus is 1st in the league for successful dribbles that lead to a shot attempt (9). This is also known as Dribble Shot Creating Actions (DSCA). For those hoping for a better understanding of SCA and DSCA please click the hyperlink for more information.
In attack Jesus offers different solutions to problems posed by opposition teams. His dribbling ability means he is able to beat defenders one on one and create chances for his team mates and himself. He is 3rd in the league for most successful dribbles this season.
In addition, Jesus’ strength in the duel means he is able to hold up play, giving his team a hub to create around and an outlet in times of pressure. Currently in the league he is 1st for total duels and 2nd for duels won, showing his tenacity to engage in physical battles with players.
His relentless pressing means opposition defenders never have any respite, comfortable possession for them could rapidly turn into a dangerous attack for the Gunners. In Arsenal’s first game against Crystal Palace, Jesus showed the aforementioned repertoire of skills which almost led to Arsenal’s opening goal. He pressed to win the ball back, then dribbled past multiple players before taking a shot which lead to a big chance for Gabriel Martinelli.
In attacking contributions Gabriel Jesus provides the following:
Major source of SCA for Arsenal
Effective dribbles which allow Arsenal to enter dangerous attacking areas
Success in duels, making him a reliable hub for attacking moves
Spearheading pressure from the front, leading to turnovers
His attacking contributions are undeniable but his defensive contributions set him apart from most attackers in the world….
Defensive Contributions
In today’s world, where defending is not a quality limited to the 4 blokes at the back, the players highest up are increasingly tasked with responsibilities not commonly found in their CV’s. Tracking, tackling and ball recovery are skills that protagonist managers appreciate in their forwards and Gabriel Jesus exudes these traits in abundance.
According to FBRef (source of football statistics) Gabriel Jesus is 3rd for tackles and interceptions amongst forwards. Jesus has 27, behind Anthony Gordon (30) and Jared Bowen (33). This is more significant when you consider the fact that Everton and West Ham concede more possession to opponents than Arsenal do. Tackles and interceptions are only possible when out of possession, thus, in teams that concedes more possession, there will be more opportunity to intercept or tackle, in an attempt to regain possession. Therefore, because Jesus has less opportunity to tackle and intercept, his high numbers in this field, display the high level defensive work the Arsenal man gets through for his side.
His tenacity is unmissable and is something fans love and hate simultaneously. We grimace after every hard tackle which could result in injury but applaud after every physical battle which regains possession for the Gunners. With Jesus, you can not have one without the other.
We talked about his duels in attacking contributions but they are relevant once more in his defensive actions. As Adrian Clark highlighted in a piece covering Arsenal’s possible replacements:
“Throwing himself into more duels than any other player, he regularly earns the Gunners set-piece situations in good areas.”
To be second in terms of duels won across the entire premier league is remarkable, especially as a forward. Defending from the front is not as effective as it can be, if your forwards are tentative to engage in contact and physical battles. Aubameyang and Ozil were the examples of this. They often closed down players but never committed to the tackle or duel on numerous occasions.
Below is an example of the aforementioned point. Arsenal play a long ball up the field and Gabriel Jesus is willing to enter a duel with Joel Matip.
Arsenal are fourth in the league for tackles in the attacking third indicating their will to keep the opposition pinned back and on the back foot. Causing chaos is a tool the Brazilian has and utilises well. The forward completes 0.37 attacking third tackles/90 and sits in 5th for total tackles in the attacking third, amongst forwards.
To summarise, Gabriel Jesus offers front footed defending by:
Tackling in Arsenal’s attacking third
Competing in a high number of duels
Winning a high number of duels
Spearheading the Arsenal press
The tangible effect Jesus has on Arteta’s front-footed approach is clear. Gabriel Jesus’ defensive contributions make him a nightmare for any team Arsenal come up against.
Stylistic Compatibility
As a football manager the execution of your style and ideas is limited to the extent of your resources. Oftentimes a compromise must be reached, a middle ground between your ultimate philosophy and the quality available at present.
In Arteta’s first game in charge, his football ideals were exhibited.
A 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 system
High defensive line
Possession based football
Pressure from the front
Smart positional rotation
He however had to adapt due the quality of personnel available and utilised the back five for extended periods during his early tenure. In addition, a lower defensive line and a counter attacking style of play were pragmatic solutions which lead to a successful first season, crowned with an FA Cup trophy.
As the squad underwent renovation, stylistic changes could be observed in Arsenal’s approach to games.
The following graphic below, courtesy of the Athletic highlights how the defensive line for Arsenal evolved over time.
The below graphic shows how Arsenal’s hi-regains (turnovers in the attacking third), trended over time:
Jesus has been a major component of Mikel Arteta being able to make these stylistic shifts, helping the Spaniard take steps closer to his ideal style of play. The Brazilian is able to:
Spearhead the press from the front, allowing Arsenal to:
Pin teams back
Implement a high defensive line
Regain possession in the attacking third
Find space to receive progressive passes and hold up play, allowing Arsenal to:
Pin teams back
Build attacks successfully
Keep possession in the most dangerous areas of the pitch
Play across any part of the attacking trident, allowing for:
Fluid angles of attack
Disrupting of opponent’s defensive line
Many solutions for defensive puzzles posed by opponents
The above list is not exhaustive, but paints the picture for Jesus’ importance.
He is all that and more for Arsenal. ‘Arteta-ball’ is to a large extent, reliant on the Brazilian’s contributions, both in and out of possession. Some big shoes to fill and Arteta, along with his team will no doubt be combing through all possible solutions.
Can Arsenal find a way to replace his attacking contributions, defensive offerings and stylistic compatibility? Let us work backwards from the qualities mentioned herein and consider some potential prospects.
Method of Analysis
FBRef and Squawka’s Comparison Matirix (SCM) will be our main source of statistics with which to evaluate possible options.
The qualities we will be looking for will be the ones mentioned above, so:
Attacking Contributions
Shot creating actions/90 (SCA)
Dribbles resulting in SCA/90
Goal involvement/90
Defensive Contributions
Tackles in attacking third/90
Duels Contested/90
Duels Won/90
Stylistic Compatibility
Team touches in attacking third
Team tackles in attacking third
Versatility across front 3
To narrow the pool of players, I will only focus on players who meet the following criteria:
Age 25 and under (To account for Arsenal’s affinity for young players over recent windows)
Played more than 900 minutes (10 x 90 minute games) of football for their clubs this season
Are classed as forwards
Players will be scored using a points based system. For each sub-category there will be 5 points for the highest rated in that statistic, 4 points for 2nd rated and so on. The top 5 players will be discussed. In addition, to this the eye test will be used. I will watch a game from each of the 5 highest scoring players to add some context to the numbers. Stats are only a piece of the puzzle.
Most of the top leagues in Europe were considered, including the Championship as well, which is the 2nd division in England.
Below are the results of the analysis.
The Results
After scoring the players based on the above date the order of results were as follows:
Khvicha Kvaratshkalia (Napoli)
Cody Gakpo (PSV)
Joao Pedro (Watford)
Randal Kolo Muani (Eintracht Frankfurt)
Martin Terrier (Rennes)
The Options
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
The 21 year old Georgian will be on a lot of top clubs christmas list going into January but the Neapolitans will be very reluctant to let their star-man go in the middle of what could be, a prosperous campaign. Napoli are currently leading Serie A, 8 points ahead of 2nd place AC Milan and flying in the Champions League also. Kvaratskhelia currently has 16 goal involvements in 16 starts for the Serie A side, and tops the league for goal involvements this season.
Having watched Napoli vs Ajax, the Georgian’s directness, electricity and bipedality is clear to see and poses a nightmare for all defenders. He is 2nd in the table above for Shot Creating Actions (SCA) per 90, managing to create 6 shots every 90 mins. For context, Jesus creates 4.21 and Martin Ødegaard who tops Arsenal in this regard has 4.53. He also creates 0.93 shots/90 as a result of a dribble. In comparison Gabriel Jesus creates 0.67. These figures highlight Kvaratskhelia’s danger going forward.
I am not a fan of youtube compilation that show the best bits of a player, they can make Mustafi look like Maldini. So I would rather watch a players touches from a single game. This provides a better holistic understanding of a players contributions during a game. You see the successes and mistakes and this is a more reliable judge than a highlight reel.
Considering this, here is Kvaratshkhelia vs Liverpool in the Champions League this season
The above provides a glimpse into the directness and quality Kvaratskhelia brings.
In terms of defensive contributions, the Georgian tops the list for tackles in the attacking third averaging 1.03/90. This alludes to his ability to engage in pressures high up the pitch.
The Georgian however, does not match the standards of Jesus in regards to duels contested and won per 90. Interestingly however, he outperforms Nketiah and Martinelli in this area. This is intriguing because currently Nketiah and Martinelli are the two options to replace the injured Jesus and the data shows the Georgian may provide a more combative option than the two current Arsenal options.
Considering his attacking potential and willingness to take on defenders, no wonder the Neapolitans refer to him as Kvaradona, in reference to Maradona. The forward has been immense for Napoli this season.
In terms of versatility however, the forward is mainly employed on the left of attack and rarely starts up front. He may not be a direct Jesus replacement in that sense but could provide threat from the left whilst Martinelli moves centrally. This will be one for Arteta and his team to think about if they decide to go for the Georgian. With talk of Mudryk being a sensible transfer for Arsenal this January, Kvaratskhelia should not be too far from Arsenal’s radar also.
Having said all that, the possibility of obtaining the Napoli forward is slim. With 5 years left on his contract, Napoli’s current position in the league and in Europe, there is little chance of the Georgian leaving the Stadio Maradona this January. It would take a record fee to prise the forward away from Naples this January.
To summarise, Khvicha Kvaratshkalia would be an absolutely level raiser and the data suggests his attacking threat surpasses any current Arsenal forward. If Arsenal are ready to break the bank, Khvicha Kvaratshkalia is their man.
Cody Gakpo
In second place is the young Dutch star Cody Gakpo. With the World Cup now finished, Cody Gakpo has shown he can do it on the biggest stage. Scoring 3 goals in the first 3 games for Netherlands, the PSV forward helped propel the Dutch into the knockout rounds. Not only did he score 3 times but in three ways, a right footed shot, a left footed shot and a header.
There have been many links with Gakpo to the premier league over the summer, with Leeds coming very close…
According to the data he is the second best replacement for Gabriel Jesus, let us look at why…
Cody Gapko has the best shot creating actions per 90 (7.94) and the best goal involvement per 90 (1.52). Again for comparison, Martin Ødegaard comes in with 4.53 SCA/90 and in terms of goal involvement, of players who have played over 900 minutes for Arsenal, Jesus leads the way with 0.74. Gakpo has over double this figure.
It is important to note however that Gakpo may be utilised differently in Arsenal. Where as he is PSV’s main hub of attack, he may be relied upon less in an Arsenal set up. Another caveat is that Gakpo’s SCA, often occur via dead ball passes, highlighting him as one of PSV’s main set piece takers. This may change if he arrives at the Emirates.
Nonetheless, Gakpo has 9 goals and 12 assists for PSV this season, showcasing his ability to be a creator as well as a finisher. In terms of attacking contributions Gakpo provides a lot of contributions for PSV and as he has shown in the World Cup, he can do it on the biggest stage in a different team and set up. In addition, Gakpo is an excellent finisher and has either equalled or outperformed his xG (Expected Goals), for the last 5 years.
When it comes to attacking contributions, Gakpo can provide. Now let us look at how he matches up defensively.
Jesus outperforms Gakpo in defensive contributions in terms of duels contested/90, duels won/90 and tackles made/90. The below visual highlights these areas as well as other stats too.
Gakpo does outperform Jesus in ground duel success percentage but the caveat there is he contests less ground duels/90. When looking at ground duels won/90 Jesus has more with 6.2 compared with 5.5 for Gakpo. These figures highlight how Gakpo may not provide the levels of defensive contributions that Jesus does. As Pep mentioned, Jesus is probably one of the best defensive forwards out there and it shows.
In addition, the physicality of the premier league may prove a learning curve for the Dutchman. Having said this, if Gakpo can maintain his attacking output, less emphasis will be put on his lack of defensive acumen.
Gakpo is a solid option who can offer versatility across the front line, thus he can be moulded to fit Arteta’s ideal stylistic footballing philosophy. He will cost a lot, but for a 23 year old touted as the next star, it may be a worthwhile investment.
He is also open to a move to the premier league but following his World Cup showing, PSV will be demanding a big fee for the Dutch forward. Let us see what happens in January.
Joao Pedro
Watford are currently 3rd in the Championship and are fighting for promotion back into the English top flight. Their star men this campaign have been Ismail Sarr of Senegal and Joao Pedro of Brazil, who have 9 and 8 goal involvements respectively. Joao Pedro’s goal involvements make up 27% of Watford’s total goals this season and when looking at the data it is easy to see why.
The Brazilian has the most SCA of any Watford player (68) and the most SCA as a result of a dribble (8) in the Watford team. He has also completed the 2nd most successful dribbles in the Championship (41) only surpassed by Ilman Ndiaye of Sheffield United (45), who has played over 180 minutes more than the Brazilian. For comparison, when looking at per 90 data, Joao Pedro has completed 2.5 dribbles/90 and Martinelli; who has the most successful dribbles for Arsenal’s; has completed 2.1 dribbles/90.
Joao Pedro offers trickery and dynamism going forward, and can be a handful for defenders. His attacking contributions are a big part of Watford’s ascendancy this season.
What stands out the most with Joao Pedro however, is his duel success rate. Pedro wins 8.34 duels per 90, which is higher than the 8 of Gabriel Jesus. He also engages in 16.5 duels per 90, which is the 4th highest among the pool of players compared. These data points, illustrate Joao Pedro’s willingness to engage in physical battles and he often wins these duels also. One example of Pedro’s ability in duels, especially aerially was his finish vs Newcastle in last seasons Premier League campaign. Pedro beats Jamaal Lascelles to head home the equaliser for Watford.
The image below compares some duel specific stats between Gabriel Jesus, Cody Gakpo and Joao Pedro. The data is represented in per 90 format.
In terms of the eye test, it only takes a couple viewings of Pedro on the ball to notice his dynamism and strength on the ball. The forward is direct and explosive and often attempts to take on his man, looking to put opposition teams on the back foot and cause chaos in their defensive lines.
In terms of stylistic compatibility there are a few things to note. For Watford, Pedro is often found across the front line, playing on the left and on the right as well as appearing centrally, showcasing his versatility. In addition, Pedro performs better than Jesus for tackles made per 90, as shown in the visual above. Although his tackles in the attacking third/90 are low (0.19), he is often engaged in defensive work for the Championship side and has completed 16 tackles in the middle third and 11 tackles in the defensive third. For comparison, Jesus has completed 5 in the middle third and 9 in the defensive third.
Joao Pedro is also Brazilian, which would aid his assimilation into the Arsenal squad should the move happen. In addition, Joao Pedro is no stranger to the Premier League, having played over 1600 minutes for Watford in their 2021/22 Premier League campaign.
Having just signed a contract extension till 2028 however, it may be difficult to prise the Brazilian away from Watford. Joao Pedro however, is worth it and is destined for top flight football. He will be a solid option for replacing the injured Gabriel Jesus.
Randal Kolo Muani
The name Randal Kolo Muani is not one I was familiar with before embarking upon this research. It surprised me even further, seeing that he is part of the France World Cup set up. He showed his qualities in the semi-final where he scored and in the final, where he helped France push Argentina till the bitter end.
Muani is a forward who plays his football at Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga. He currently has 5 goals and 9 assists, topping Eintracht Frankfurt’s goal involvement table, with 14 G&A in 14 games played. Muani tops our pool of forwards in DSCA, with 1.12 DSCA/90. For comparison Jesus has 0.67 DSCA/90.
One thing that jumps out when looking at the French forwards numbers is the overperformance of his xAG (Expected Assists Generates). Muani has generated 3.2 expected assists, but has 9 actual assists. This may point to the high level of conversion in the Eintracht Frankfurt team currently. Whether this overperformance persists, remains to be seen.
Nonetheless, Muani’s dribbling prowess is clear. He has attempted and completed the most dribble for E. Frankfurt (64 and 30 respectively) and is 6th for most dribbles completed in the Bundesliga.
Going forward, Muani offers pace and trickery, causing problems for defenders. His dribbles also prove dangerous, with a high chance of him creating a shot attempt for his team as a result.
In terms of defensive contributions, Muani completed 0.34 tackles in the attacking third/90. For comparison, Jesus completes 0.37 and Martinelli 0.38, showing that Muani can have some utility in high pressing situations. It is unfortunate however that there is a lack of data regarding Muani’s duelling competitiveness. The only data regarding duels available was aerial duels contested and won per 90. When comparing Muani to Jesus, the two forwards contested 4 vs 5.19 and won 1.5 vs 1.7 aerial duels respectively. Jesus outperformed Muani when battling for balls in the air but Muani showed some utility in this area.
After watching the World Cup final, I have a better understanding of Muani’s defensive contributions. During his time on the pitch against Argentina, Muani showcased his tenacity, putting in 1 tackle in the attacking third and 2 tackles in the middle third. In addition, for France he was 2nd for ball recoveries (7) and 1st for aerial duels won (5).
One moment that stands out is the penalty he won for France, which spurred their comeback into the game. Muani showed aggression and intelligence, to steal the ball from Otamendi, drive into the box, and go down on contact to win the penalty for France.
Muani is till quite raw, but this is something that can be honed with the right coaching. Arteta loves to coach young talents and help them improve, thus Muani could be the perfect option to rotate with Nketiah, helping to push the English forward and the team to success this season.
Martin Terrier
Staying in France for our 5th ranked Gabriel Jesus replacement is Rennes forward Martin Terrier, who by all accounts is having a great season in Ligue 1. Martin Terrier has 11 goal involvements so far this season (8G, 3A). Last year the forward finished the campaign with 21G and 3A, capping off the season with 24 goal involvements in 37 starts. He currently has a goal involvement per 90 of 0.83, surpassing Jesus’ involvement per 90 of 0.74.
The Rennes forward is not a dribbling dynamo like Jesus, and has only succeeded with a dribble 9 times this season, as compared to Jesus’ 27, but his strength is in the duels. Winning duels is what he does, then looking to lay off passes to his teammates to find space and link up. Martin Terrier is a bit of a surprise package. His stats paint the picture of a static, up-front number 9, a bit like Giroud, but he plays as a left sided wide forward for Rennes and often gets back to help out defensively as well as driving forward on attacking moves. This is a reason why stats are a means to an end but not an end in itself. It is one piece of a wider whole.
Terrier is second in terms of duels won/90 in our pool of forwards, winning 8.27. Joao Pedro takes the top spot with 8.34. Terrier is highest for aerial duel success however, winning a whopping 60% of his aerial battles.
From the above graphic we can see how Jesus, Terrier and Pedro compare over some of the more duel orientated statistics/90. All three excel and have unique advantages. Jesus will never stop contesting duels and will always give defenders a problem to think about. Pedro will do the same and will win a few more than Jesus and Terrier will contest less but will win most of the duels he does contest.
In attacking contribution Terrier lacks the dribbling prowess of a Jesus, but makes up for this with strength in the duel, intelligent link up play and probing runs, acting as the attacking hub for Rennes. In their game vs Montpellier this season, Terrier was involved in 2 of Rennes 3 goals. First scoring with a header in the first half, then receiving the ball centrally and playing a pass which sets up his team mate in the second half.
He will offer something different and could be the perfect accompaniment to Nketiah in Arsenal’s attacking options. He is also an excellent finisher and has over performed his xG for 2 seasons running. Last campaign he scored 21 goals on an xG of 15 and this campaign he has 8 goals on an xG of 5.
In defensive contributions, Martin Terrier is no slouch either. He is 4th for tackles in the attacking third in our pool of forwards, completing 0.6 per 90. For comparison, Jesus has 0.37 per 90. He is definitely willing to get stuck in and can prove a useful player in Arsenal’s high pressing game.
With his duel strengths as well, the Rennes man could provide some steel in the attack, helping Arsenal retain possession high up the pitch and giving defenders more than their fair share of concerns. Martin Terrier has completed 36 tackles and interceptions for Rennes this season, 9 more than Jesus has for Arsenal.
When it comes to versatility, the Rennes forward fits in like a glove. Often deployed on the left of the front 3, Terrier starts games wide but is given great freedom to roam centrally and look for spaces to create and be dangerous. He has the agility to play as a wide forward but also possesses the strength and physicality to play as a striker, either with his back to goal or running in behind.
At a time when the number 9 is seeing something of a resurgence, Martin Terrier could be Arsenal’s answer for a player with traditional number 9 qualities, plus the willingness to engage in defensive responsibilities too. At 25, Terrier could also prove an experienced head in the dressing room, helping to guide the younger heads. He may be the most cost efficient of the transfer options discussed, but is nonetheless a quality player who appears to be hitting his peak and could provide an alternative option for Arteta should he make a move to the Emirates.
Nketiah & Martinelli
Another likely but risky possibility, is for Arsenal to make no transfers next month. January is often a difficult time to make successful transfers and as we have seen the Gunners do before, if the right opportunity does not appear, they are prepared to wait till the summer to make their move.
Considering this, Nketiah and Martinelli may be given the attacking reigns until the return of Jesus. Due to this I have included them in the pool of forwards, so we can compare how these two options match up against potential prospects.
For Nketiah, data from the 21/22 campaign was used, as his minutes in the premier league this season have been minimal.
First looking at Nketiah’s attacking contributions, the forward performs well in terms of non-penalty goal involvement per 90 (npGI/90). Last season when given a run of games, Nketiah had 0.65 npGI/90, which is higher than Martinelli (0.53) and Joao Pedro (0.45) for this campaign. He also created 0.54 SCA as a result of a dribble, which is higher than Joao Pedro (0.51), Joao Felix (0.5) and Martin Terrier (0.23). Considering Nketiah was used sparingly last season and only featured more towards the end of the campaign, he definitely showed he can provide goals and be a threat when given the chance.
In our recent friendlies leading up to the restart of premier league campaign, Nketiah has shown he is not to be forgotten. He netted against Lyon before winning the foul which led to Odegaard’s free kick goal for the opener against AC Milan. Although Arsenal blanked against Juventus, Nketiah struck the post with a strong shot off his weaker foot and earlier on, tucked away a chance but it was ruled out for offside. He looked lively over all three games.
In regards to defensive contributions, Nketiah chipped in last season with 0.43 tackles in the attacking third/90, which is more than Jesus and Martinelli this campaign. He also contests more duels than Martinelli but wins less than the young Brazilian.
Nketiah since making his first team debut in 2017, has only started 19 games for the gunners. If given the attacking reigns for the restart and beyond, Nketiah could show why he deserves regular game time for the gunners.
Martinelli is also an option that has been touted as an attacking replacement for Jesus, however with the sparkling start to the season Martinelli has made on the left, I will be surprised if Arteta moves him from the left. In addition, with the injury of Reiss Nelson against Juventus Arsenal are looking increasingly thin across the front line. To make matters worse, fixture congestion is only going to get tighter. Arsenal currently play 8 games in February and March and that is without Europa league or FA Cup fixtures.
Considering this, the chance of Arsenal making additions to the squad in January looks more like a necessity than a luxury.
In Summary
Should Arsenal look to strengthen, there are many options they could look to recruit from, with some more expensive than others.
With the great start to the season, Arsenal will look to maintain this form and finding a worthy replacement for Jesus is top of the priority list.
Finding a player who can provide attacking contributions, defensive offerings and a stylistic compatibility similar to that of Jesus is tough but not impossible and the aforementioned names are some of the possible solutions.